Vietnam’s Rice Export Prices Under Strong Year-End Pressure: Market Outlook 2025–2026

Viet Nam’s rice export sector is navigating a challenging cycle in 2025. Average export prices in the first nine months reached 509 USD per tonne, reflecting an 18.6 percent year-on-year decline. The benchmark 5 percent broken rice has dropped to 370 USD per tonne, signaling a highly competitive environment with thinner margins across Asia.

Global Supply Continues to Rise

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts global rice output to reach 556.4 million tonnes this year. Increased production in India, Thailand, Pakistan, and several African countries has contributed to abundant supply, pushing international prices toward decade-low levels. Major buyers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia have scaled back imports due to improved domestic stockpiles.

Demand Trends Across Key Import Markets

Vietnamese exporters are experiencing slower purchasing activity as multiple markets temporarily pause or adjust their import plans. Demand from East and Southeast Asia softened in the third quarter, while African markets displayed mixed signals depending on local inventory and currency fluctuations. Despite the slowdown, segments such as fragrant rice, premium small-pack products, and specialty varieties remain relatively resilient.

Strategic Opportunities for Vietnamese Rice

Amid pricing pressure, opportunities continue to emerge for brands that can differentiate through quality, product mix, and origin storytelling. Premium fragrant rice, sustainable packaging, traceable supply chains, and private-label retail partnerships are gaining traction with global buyers. Markets such as China, the Middle East, and West Africa still show strong long-term potential, especially for higher value varieties.

Cam Rice’s Support for Buyers and Partners

Cam Rice works closely with international partners to navigate current market shifts. Through updated market intelligence, SKU analysis, and export strategy planning, the company provides tailored guidance to help buyers identify the right varieties and competitive pricing structures for each market.

Source: Nhan Dan Vietnam Newspaper