Philippines Import Pause Sends Shockwaves
Through Vietnam’s Rice Market

Vietnam’s rice industry is facing a turbulent September as the Philippines, its largest export market, halts imports and signals possible extensions to the suspension. New customs data and storm damage reports point to a challenging fourth quarter for Vietnamese exporters, with mounting stockpiles and uncertain market dynamics.

Sharp Decline in Vietnam’s Rice Exports
According to AgroMonitor, Vietnam exported only 95,000 tons of rice during the week of September 10–16, a sharp drop from 175,000 tons the previous week. For the first 16 days of September, total rice exports reached 254,000 tons, down 32.26% compared to the same period in August. Year-to-date exports stood at 655,000 tons as of September 16, nearly on par with last year’s volume but showing signs of pressure from the Philippine suspension.

The slowdown is most evident in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s key rice-growing region. Inventory levels are expected to reach 2.08 million tons by the end of September, significantly higher than in August, putting downward pressure on farmgate prices.

Philippines Faces Storm Damage and Food Security Concerns
The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) has confirmed that tropical storms and monsoon rains have caused an estimated 1.38 billion pesos in agricultural damage, affecting nearly 55,600 farmers and over 47,000 hectares of farmland. To stabilize domestic supplies and protect farmers, the Philippine government first imposed a 60-day import suspension on September 1 and is now considering an extension.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has also floated the idea of restoring the rice import tariff from 15% back to 35%, a move that would shield domestic farmers from cheap imports but raise consumer prices. Some traders predict that even if the ban remains in place, Philippine demand could surge again early next year, especially if storm-related losses worsen.

Who Can Fill the Gap?
The Philippines typically accounts for more than 40% of Vietnam’s total rice exports, making its absence felt across global markets. During the second week of September, Vietnam’s top buyers included Ghana, Malaysia, China, Côte d’Ivoire, Singapore, and Indonesia, but none match the scale of Philippine demand.

African markets remain a key bright spot, particularly Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, where strong demand for affordable rice could partially offset the Philippine shortfall. Other Southeast Asian neighbors such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore also present opportunities, while China may increase imports for reserve stockpiling. However, these markets combined are unlikely to fully absorb the gap left by the Philippines.

Outlook for Q4 2025
Vietnamese exporters are bracing for a challenging final quarter. If the Philippine suspension extends or tariffs rise, Vietnam could lose 500,000 to 700,000 tons of export volume compared to the same period last year. To mitigate risks, experts recommend that exporters diversify markets, focus on high-value fragrant and specialty rice, and secure long-term contracts with stable buyers outside the Philippines.

Despite current headwinds, Vietnam retains key advantages: proximity to major Asian markets, competitive logistics costs, and a reputation for premium fragrant rice such as ST25 and Japonica. Should Philippine import needs rebound in early 2026, Vietnamese rice will remain a first-choice supplier.

Key Takeaway
The Philippine import pause is more than a temporary disruption, it’s a stress test for Vietnam’s rice sector. Exporters that leverage this period to expand into Africa, Southeast Asia, and China, while strengthening premium product offerings, will be best positioned to weather the storm and capture future demand when the Philippines inevitably returns to the market.